A Coulomb Stress Response Model for Time‐Dependent Earthquake Forecasts

Seismicity models are probabilistic forecasts of earthquake rates to support seismic hazard assessment. Physics-based allow extrapolating previously unsampled parameter ranges and enable conclusions on underlying tectonic or human-induced processes. The Coulomb Failure (CF) the rate-and-state (RS) two widely used physics-based seismicity both assuming pre-existing populations faults responding stress changes. CF model depends absolute assumes instantaneous triggering if exceeds a threshold, while RS only Both can predict background time-dependent effects, but with its three independent parameters additionally explain delayed aftershock triggering. This study introduces modified where is replaced by mean time-to-failure depending value. For specific choice an exponential dependence stationary initial rate, we show that leads identical results as reproduces Omori-Utsu relation for decays well stress-shadowing effects. Thus, be seen special cases new model. However, response also account subcritical conditions alternative functions problem fracture mode.